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The bad news keeps coming about inflation.
First, it was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), where the core figure increased by 3.1% in July. (The core figure excludes food and energy prices that can be volatile month-to-month.)
It was above estimates and marked the second consecutive month of rising inflation.
But an even bigger surprise was lurking in the Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI measures the average selling price received by producers for their goods and services.
The core PPI measure rose by 3.7%… far exceeding economists’ estimates. The monthly change was the largest since inflation was surging higher in early 2022.
You will often see PPI moving higher or lower ahead of changes in consumer inflation. That’s fueling fears that tariffs are starting to have a bigger impact on price increases.
Yet even as inflation reports get more volatile, there are trading opportunities in an asset that’s sensitive to inflation… gold.
Gold’s Historic Breakout
Gold is a well-known inflation hedge.
During periods of rising inflation, gold outperforms all other asset classes by far, including stocks and bonds.
That’s why following the action in gold prices can reveal the market’s take on the inflation outlook.
Take a look at the chart below.
Gold first broke out to record highs over the $2,000 per ounce level back in early 2024 at “1.” Since then, gold prices have added 60% in three distinct rally phases.
In between those rallies, gold prices took a break and traded in narrowing ranges, shown with the dashed lines. That shows a pattern in gold prices, where consolidations follow rallies.
The last uptrend phase took gold prices to the $3,500 per ounce level. Now gold has been trading in another consolidation phase.
A move out of that pattern could reveal the outlook for inflation…
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Tracking Gold’s Pattern
Gold’s most recent run topped out at the $3,500 area back in April. Since then, gold has started another sideways trading period.
Take a look at the chart:
Gold has hit the $3,400 area four times in the last three months. Each time, gold was rejected and went lower.
But its price is also finding support at the $3,250 level, which has turned gold prices back higher.
Those price support and resistance levels are shown with the shaded boxes on the chart. You can see how gold’s price has zigzagged between them.
The uncertainty over tariffs and the inflation outlook is helping drive that volatile price action in gold prices. But we can use gold’s chart pattern to tip how concerned the market is with inflation looking ahead.
Even after the hot PPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts barely budged. The stock market mostly yawned at the inflation news as well… with major indexes like the S&P 500 holding near record highs.
But this gold range suggests something important…
If gold breaks down from its consolidation pattern, maybe the jump in PPI looks like a temporary inflation blip.
But if gold continues to run and breaks to fresh record highs, that’s a sign that we shouldn’t be complacent about inflation risks ahead…
Happy Trading,
Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict
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