Tesla Is Setting Itself Up for Another Bounce

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The first half of 2023 was a relief to Tesla (TSLA) shareholders.

The EV carmaker had lost over three-quarters of its value falling from its November 2021 all-time high. But it finally bottomed out and rallied hard at the start of last year.

Then TSLA got pulled into the huge tech rally that swept through the market in May.

When TSLA peaked on July 19, it had tripled from its January 2023 low.

Yet after that big run, TSLA has struggled to maintain positive momentum. Even its promising rally into the end of 2023 has since reversed.

And now TSLA is looking oversold. So let’s see what’s in store from here…

Drifting Lower

In the chart of TSLA below, you can see its clear uptrend in the first half of 2023.

After peaking in February, TSLA drifted through to late April before bursting higher again in May:

Tesla (TSLA)

Source: eSignal

That strong rally in May started when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reversed (left red circle). The RSI soared from oversold territory, through resistance (the green line), and well into overbought territory.

As it did so, TSLA surged. And the 10-day Moving Average (MA, red line) crossed and accelerated above the 50-day MA (blue line). Both MAs firmly moved higher.

But that rally came to an end within a common reversal pattern.

As TSLA was making higher highs (upper orange line), the RSI was making lower highs (lower orange line). When momentum falls like this, it will eventually bring the stock down, too.

And that is what we saw.

TSLA drifted lower, with the RSI sliding from overbought territory back to oversold territory.

Then a repeat of the August RSI pattern (middle red circle) caused TSLA to bounce again.

Yet after a brief rally, TSLA continued to slide, making a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Take another look:

Tesla (TSLA)

Source: eSignal

The 50-day MA shows that trend direction change as it continued to track gently lower from August.

Then TSLA’s lower low in late October reversed. The RSI rallied yet again from oversold territory (right red circle).

This up move ultimately enabled members of my options advisory, The Opportunistic Trader, to make an 82% gain in just four days.

But after peaking on December 28, the chart is showing us that declining momentum is again pulling TSLA down.

So how should we approach things from here?

An Emerging Up Move

The RSI recently fell into oversold territory. If the same RSI patterns repeat from the previous three red circles, then that could set up TSLA for a bounce.

And that would provide the setup for a potential long trade.

But keep in mind that we need to see the RSI make a decisive move higher before making a trade. The RSI in oversold territory is not enough of a signal on its own.

I’ll also watch the shorter-term 10-day MA. It has recently crossed below the 50-day MA and moved lower.

So from here, I’d also need to see the 10-day MA shift higher toward the 50-day MA to confirm any emerging up move.

Regards,

Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict