SpaceX’s IPO teased retail investors with the chance to get their hands on shares. But in the end, only a handful truly got to ride the wave.
Elon Musk set aside around 20% of SpaceX shares for everyday investors. (Hedge funds and other institutional money got their own allocation.)
But it still didn’t add up to much. One report estimates that retail investors placed over $100 billion worth of orders with only around $20 billion of SpaceX shares available.
If you weren’t among the lucky few to get shares, you had to wait for SpaceX to open for trading.
SpaceX (SPCX) jumped by 19% in a single session. It’s currently up 45% from its listing price, sending the company’s valuation to $2.5 trillion.
Watching the stock run higher is painful if you’re among the many who missed out on the rare opportunity to own SpaceX ahead of its listing.
But missing the allocation doesn’t mean missing the opportunity.
There’s a better way to profit from the SpaceX IPO… and it doesn’t involve owning a single share.
I’ve spotted another way to capitalize on SpaceX, and it has nothing to do with owning shares. The explosive growth in prediction market platforms is offering a new way to profit from these types of scenarios.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are popularly known for their event contracts on the outcomes of sporting events. But prediction markets linked to the stock market are booming, offering opportunities to profit in ways not possible by trading stocks.
Take SpaceX, for example. Even if you weren’t fortunate enough to get SpaceX shares ahead of the IPO, you could have profited from Kalshi events tied to the date of SpaceX’s IPO announcement. That means you could have collected a payout simply by being correct about a date.
In this instance, there were also event contracts tied to which banks would lead the SpaceX IPO, which S&P sector SpaceX will ultimately be assigned to, and the company’s market value.
It may sound baffling to anyone who hasn’t explored this opportunity yet, but there’s real potential for profit in this new and growing space.
Prediction markets offer a way to position yourself for stock market events… and even take advantage of scenarios where traditional markets might lock you out.
Here’s why that is worth your full attention…
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are entering a phase of exponential growth. Trading volumes have already exploded to around $60 billion so far this year, surpassing 2025’s total.
If trading volumes continue growing at the current pace, they could reach $1 trillion by 2030.
That’s why it’s worth paying close attention to this space now – we’re getting in early. At the moment, prediction markets are still new enough that the institutional money hasn’t been able to rig the game in their favor. There are still inefficiencies that regular investors can take advantage of.
At the same time, there’s plenty in this space to be excited about. Because we’re not locked in to just IPOs. We can profit from a range of events, such as the price levels of oil, Bitcoin, and gold. We can trade events linked to economic reports, such as the outcome of Federal Reserve meetings or CPI inflation reports.
There are even ways to profit from specific words and phrases uttered by key figures during important events and speeches. That could be moments like Kevin Warsh’s first Fed press conference – and there will most certainly be events linked to Elon Musk’s statements during SpaceX’s first earnings call.
We’re barely scratching the surface of ways to profit. This is the early growth stages of a new frontier for trading – similar to option markets when I first started trading over 40 years ago.
That’s why I went on the air last night to reveal my strategy for profiting from prediction markets. I’ve found a real edge for this space, and in my new trading advisory, we’re going to hunt for opportunities that meet my specific criteria.
If you missed the event, make sure you don’t miss out now. Catch the replay here before time runs out and it goes offline.
Happy Trading,
Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict
Reading Trading With Larry Benedict will allow you to take a look into the mind of one of the market’s greatest traders. You’ll be able to recognize and take advantage of trends in the market in no time.
