Geopolitical Risks Are Rising

Larry Benedict
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Jan 14, 2026
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Trading With Larry Benedict
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4 min read

Larry’s Note: If the market feels odd to you, you’re not alone. Bitcoin plunged. Gold and silver skyrocketed. And tech stocks are dragging their heels after a years-long rally. It’s hard to know the right move when things feel so uncertain.

I want to help you make sense of it all… and have one of your most profitable years ever, despite the confusion in the markets. That’s why, tomorrow, I’m holding a special event at 8 p.m. ET called Get Rich Slow – and I’d highly encourage you to attend.

I’ll show you how I’m using this environment to develop an income stream. I’ve been consistently pulling double-digit profits out of the markets over and over again. And I think 2026 has the potential to be this strategy’s best year yet.

To make sure you don’t miss out, all you have to do is RSVP here with a single click.


I’ve been warning my readers about rising geopolitical unrest.

The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife caught markets totally off guard. Now folks are speculating about potential regime changes in Colombia and Cuba.

Plus, rising unrest in Iran has seen hundreds of protesters killed and has the regime fighting to retain control.

We’ll find out soon enough whether President Trump orders another attack on Iran. However, we also need to be aware of growing uncertainty closer to home…

The Department of Justice issued subpoenas against the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell. That political attack shocked the markets again, and it caused the dollar to drop and gold to rip higher.

It portends even more uncertainty ahead… and that’s something traders need to watch closely this year.

(If you enjoy this e-letter, I’d be very grateful if you recommended it to a friend. You can click here to forward it. Thank you!)

The Fight Over Inflation

The market has become adroit at dodging bad news. Whether it’s weak jobs numbers, searing debt, or last April’s tariff tantrum, the market pivots and adapts… and rises higher.

But that resolve is going to be tested this year…

Trump failed to remove Powell last year over his refusal to blindly cut rates. But interest rate cuts are on Trump’s agenda again. He believes that rates are too high and need to be cut to keep the stock market and the real estate market humming along.

But cutting short-term rates has little effect on mortgages. They’re primarily priced off longer-term (10-year) bond yields.

Beyond that, the real cause for concern is the erosion of trust in a vital federal institution. The Fed’s independence is vital to confidence in the markets.

Plus, if inflation gets out of control again, it could trigger some dangerous scenarios…

Recall that after peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation took until April last year to fall to 2.3%. That’s still above the Fed’s target.

And since then, it’s slowly been grinding higher…

It also leaves whoever takes over from Powell when his term ends in May in a real quandary. If they attempt to raise rates to stave off inflation and/or consumer demand, they risk the wrath of the White House.

And that poses longer-term risks for the economy…

Growing Stock Market Risks

I sound like a broken record on this. But I’m going to keep reminding folks to remain cautious…

Geopolitical risks are rising abroad. But as events this past week have shown, there’s a growing risk around our venerated institutions – in particular, the Fed.

That has wider implications for investors. Don’t forget that around one-third of Treasury debt is due to be refinanced this year.

And on top of geopolitical concerns, this bull market is now into its fourth year. Although the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are pushing new all-time highs, the Nasdaq has been struggling for several months.

Given the Magnificent 7’s huge weighting in the major indexes, any weakness among these tech stocks has major implications for the markets…

A major correction could be around the corner. So you need to tightly control your risk and consider slimming your holdings – especially with stocks way overstretched.

I’d also encourage you to consider using options…

By buying an option, I can gain exposure to moves in either direction for just a fraction of the cost of buying shares. Better still, my risk is always clearly defined.

2026 is shaping up as a trader’s market. I’m expecting big tradeable swings as markets react to geopolitical concerns and a tired bull market.

But if you are nimble and can quickly react, this may be your best opportunity to pull out quick profits before trouble hits…

Happy Trading,

Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict


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