Larry’s Note: The U.S. dollar could break as early as October 7… Not weaken. Not slip a few percent. Break.
Something big is coming for the U.S. dollar, and if I’m right, that means your bonds, your cash savings, even the dollars in your pocket will all be put at risk.
Jeff Brown and I are holding an emergency briefing on Wednesday where we will cover exactly what’s happening – and what you can do about it ahead of the “reckoning.”
Just go here to sign up with one click to join us tomorrow, September 30, at 8 p.m. ET.
The start of a new quarter can put a strange pressure on traders – especially when it’s the final quarter of the year.
With only three months remaining, it’s natural to begin assessing your results and measuring them against where you’d hoped to be.
If you’re ahead, you’ll want to finish out the year strongly. But if you’re behind, the temptation is to start thinking about how quickly you can make that money back. That can lead you down a dangerous path.
If you’re not careful, you might take trade setups that you would ordinarily avoid. You might trade more frequently, increase your position sizes, or hold on to losing positions longer because you’re desperate for a win.
But the market doesn’t know that you’re behind. It doesn’t care how far you are in the red or how many trading weeks there are before the end of the year.
What’s more, the market isn’t going to do you a favor just because you need one…
Ask most Americans where their money is safe, and they’ll name the same four things. According to Jeff Brown and Larry Benedict, all four are now in danger. Not from a stock market crash, but from what they expect to happen to the U.S. dollar at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 7, on a deadline set by the federal government. During their upcoming emergency briefing, they’ll say why – and where the money goes instead. Click here to reserve your free seat.
Uber, AirBnb, SpaceX… every monster run happened behind a wall your 401(k) was never allowed to cross. Now that wall is coming down, and Larry Benedict is naming the one ticker positioned for the money that pours through – free. Click here.
Deadlines can be useful in many areas of life. They create a sense of urgency and force us to act. But markets operate according to their own timetables.
While the end of the year might matter when calculating your annual performance, it has no bearing on whether your next trade will succeed. Each trade stands on its own.
That distinction is even more important as we head into the final quarter of the year.
Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have been closing in on record territory. But the market is also dealing with surging Treasury yields, stubborn inflation, and the strong possibility of another rate hike – with potentially more to follow.
Economic releases are even more closely scrutinized, as traders constantly reassess what the Federal Reserve might do next. One surprise can quickly send stocks, bonds and currencies in different directions.
Sure, that can create plenty of trading opportunities. But it can also punish anyone who enters a position simply because they feel compelled to trade.
The real danger begins when determination turns into desperation. Before long, they’re no longer trading the setup in front of them – they’re trading their P&L.
And the market has a habit of punishing traders who try to force it to deliver a particular result.
Making the final quarter count doesn’t mean you need to trade more aggressively.
It means becoming even more disciplined. Every new trade should be assessed completely independently of whatever happened before it. And you need to strictly follow your own rules.
Does the setup meet your criteria? Is the potential reward worth the risk you’re taking on? You also need to confirm exactly where you’ll exit if the trade moves against you.
Desperation doesn’t suddenly turn a marginal trade into a good one.
Sometimes the most valuable decision you can make is to preserve your capital and wait. That might mean missing some market moves. And it might mean accepting that you may not recover every dollar before the year ends.
But finishing the year with a manageable loss is far better than blowing a hole in your account because you were desperate to manufacture a profit.
There will always be another quarter, another year or another market cycle… and another genuine trading opportunity. However, you can only take advantage of those opportunities if you have the capital (and confidence) to trade them.
So don’t let an arbitrary date on the calendar dictate how much risk you take. And don’t lower your standards simply because you can feel the clock ticking down.
Your job isn’t to force a comeback by December 31. It’s to remain disciplined, protect your capital, and be ready when the right opportunity arrives.
Regards,
Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict
Reading Trading With Larry Benedict will allow you to take a look into the mind of one of the market’s greatest traders. You’ll be able to recognize and take advantage of trends in the market in no time.
