Modern prediction market platforms quietly took shape as early as 2018, then exploded into the mainstream during the high-stakes 2024 presidential race.
Back then, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket outperformed traditional polls by favoring Donald Trump’s win during the presidential election.
As midterm elections neared this time around, prediction markets were accurate in key political forecasts once again. Kalshi odds signalled a blue wave ahead of midterm elections, with Democrats expected to rack up major wins.
That’s exactly what happened. And while prediction markets offer insights that reflect the wisdom of the crowd, they also offer a chance to profit.
As traders struggle to navigate the stock market and AI trade, the chance to rack up gains during this election cycle was greater than ever. Here’s how my subscribers are taking advantage…
Recently, Nvidia's stock went down. But a brand-new kind of trade on Nvidia, costing less than $1 per contract, increased 4,445% (from 2 cents to $1) in just two days. Do you know another trade on Nvidia this year that has increased 40x? On Microsoft, the stock went nowhere for 12 days. “The Penny Tech Trade” increased 952% over two weeks. They're called “Penny Tech Trades.” This Veterans Day, at 8 p.m. ET, Jeff Brown and Larry Benedict will show you exactly how they work, on camera, with their own money. Click here to save your free spot.
Gold analyst Garrett Goggin recently uncovered a simple chart stretching back roughly 100 years. It compares expensive growth assets with hard assets – and today those two lines are farther apart than at any other point in the chart's history. Every previous extreme resulted in enormous wealth for investors with the foresight to buy and hold the best gold stocks. Garrett believes we're approaching another “Great Rotation” into gold miners – and he's identified four miners everyone should own beforehand. Go here to see the 100-year chart and Garrett's top four stocks.
Prediction market activity sees a surge in volumes anytime a big event approaches, which means more opportunities to profit.
The midterm elections were no different. Kalshi alone reported $1.4 billion in midterm election volume. Across prediction market platforms, 28,000 midterm markets have been opened.
Prediction market events tied to the elections offered traders plenty of chances to profit. I flagged a contract on whether the Senate would change hands. The risk-reward looked strong.
While the Nasdaq dropped to its third 10% correction this year, my readers closed out that position for a 35% gain in just two days.
Across all closed positions, we’ve racked up an average gain of 25% with a holding period of just two days – along with a 91% win rate.
With the explosive growth in prediction markets, here’s how we are preparing for more profit opportunities…
Prediction market volumes continue surging higher, reaching $123 billion in October across more than 640 million transactions. That’s a 54% increase from September’s record and is the first time volumes have crossed the $100 billion mark in a single month.
Kalshi and Polymarket receive a lot of attention for sports events. But non-sports categories like politics, economics, financial markets, and commodities are gaining rapidly as well. New kinds of contracts keep showing up too. Some reward people who know how a company really works, like its products or production timelines.
In many ways, prediction markets remind me of the excitement of options trading early in my career. But just like options trading, you need a sound approach for selecting the best opportunities and managing risk at the same time.
That’s why I’d like to invite you to the Penny Tech Profits event coming up next week. Jeff Brown and I will show you our favorite strategies for winning in this growing space… and even trade right on camera so you can see the process.
RSVP right here to add your name to our guest list, and then mark your calendar for Wednesday, November 11, at 8 p.m. ET.
See you there!
Happy Trading,
Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict
Reading Trading With Larry Benedict will allow you to take a look into the mind of one of the market’s greatest traders. You’ll be able to recognize and take advantage of trends in the market in no time.
